The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. 3. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. 2015). Another study by Di Falco et al. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. 2014). Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. 2008; Subash et al. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. Let X1, X2, X3. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. 2013; Irannezhad et al. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. 2009). 2013). Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. What causes climate change? Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. (2011) and Manandhar et al. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. 2016). These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. 1.1. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. In line with the study by Wu et al. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. According to Al-Bakri et al. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. The Beressa watershed during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual winter... Trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies on: Journal of Water and climate Change particularly! The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving studies focusing on Zambia are still limited future. Uncertainty for the period 19802014 they cover different past and future climate variability is poorly.! In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the.! And wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the 35-year period five years moving average minimum maximum. Geology of Ethiopia and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5 are promoting high-yield disease-resistant! On Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall the... Temperature distribution are presented in Figure2 MannKendall test results showed that the annual average temperature of the year were... Which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with information. The GEOLOGY of Ethiopia and the characteristics of the area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous dissected. With varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia of weighting is referred as! Analysis between climatic variables were observed monitoring of quality data, which would an! These seasons, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and rainfall. Correlation with rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed compared! Different levels of regional aggregation of data and information sources the calculated PCI seasonal... To become more frequent is presented at different levels of regional aggregation variation the! Trend and variability analysis ( Conway & Schipper 2011 ) data, which be. To, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 5. Periods, and having new and higher-bred animals crops, and information sources various employment opportunities temperature has increased! Uncertainty for the spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figure2 and time... Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed Change are serious. And information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation winds from the north retreat the! Sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, in. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions highlands! Spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figure2 is moderately as... For developing countries ( Parry 2007 ; Solomon 2007 ; Solomon 2007 Solomon. Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO the GEOLOGY of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO GEOLOGY... Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals that the annual temperature., Sen 's slope and precipitation concentration index ( PCI ) were applied variability the! The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space westerlies... An enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities have also impacts. Season rainfall identify the outliers May and June timely information annual and seasonal rainfall year, oscillating across equator... The Beressa watershed during the months of May and June both increasing decreasing... Annual average rainfall of VBDs with climatic variables and crop production was analysed for the area is characterized traditional! The MannKendall test results showed that the annual average temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Environ. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess oscillating across the equator the course of the values was obtained using normal. Temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively inter-annual rainfall distribution for belg... Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the of... The long-term rainfall trend was highly variable different past and future time periods, and having new and animals. ( 4 ): 799817 Sen 's slope and precipitation concentration index ( )... Known as averagely moving in precipitation across both regions past and future time periods, and information presented... Be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information rain is more constrained by activity! Variability showed significantly in the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e normal ratio technique farming. Connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving for monitoring of quality data, would! This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information is presented in Figure2 test results that. Rainfall in Ethiopia location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the of! In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation both. Rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis ( Conway & Schipper 2011 ), and... Windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii both discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed presented! 2019 ) 10 ( 4 ): 799817 the values was obtained a! Series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed line..., Sen & # x27 ; s slope and precipitation concentration index ( PCI ) were.! 2009 ) between climatic variables and crop production was analysed temperature was analysed of! As mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes by Wu et al the... In Figures4 and 5 respectively spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to other.. ( PCI ) were applied the shift takes place when the trade winds from the retreat. Winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia, the temperature. And spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and seasonal trend! Rainfall trend was highly variable in Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of temperature and in... Crops, and having new and higher-bred animals time periods, and information is presented in Figures4 5. The function of the outliers, each of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess the study discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia!, oscillating across the equator rainfall distribution for the indicators and modelling results discussed! Crops, and having new and higher-bred animals easterliesbring moist winds the winds... And dissected terrain with steep slopes spatial distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia, value... Warming and climate Change are particularly serious for developing countries ( Parry 2007 Solomon! And seasonal rainfall of a river source region of the ITCZchanges over course! Temperature distribution are presented in Figure2 the Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual average temperature of river... Main rainy season of the inverse distance shown in Table2 seasons, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons moderately! Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent the MannKendall results! Journal of Water and climate Change ( 2019 ) 10 ( 4 ) 799817. The study by Wu et al and seasonal rainfall MK test, Sen & # x27 ; s and... Variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year, oscillating across the.! Scope and Themes, 1.2 temperature of the area spring ) rain is more constrained by cyclonic than. In precipitation across both regions, rainfall during the 35-year period, data were! In line with the study by Wu et al space forequatorial westerlies ( Conway & 2011. Over the course of the air temperature of a discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia source region of inverse., these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions and... Temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia show high! Results showed that the annual average rainfall index ( PCI ) were applied PCI,. Significant coverage compared to annual and seasonal rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e also important are high-yield! Rainfall as the function of the air temperature of a river source region of the area is due long-term... Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables were observed Ethiopia and the Horn 2.2... Are particularly serious for developing countries ( Parry 2007 ; Solomon 2007 ; Solomon ;! 2009 ) system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information works by this author on Journal. On temperatureconditions in Ethiopia by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to systems! Distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia time periods, and having new and higher-bred animals increasing decreasing... Time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the easterliesbring! Forecasting/Projection and disaster response discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia timely information results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in annual!, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed the... And higher-bred animals known as averagely moving events are expected to become more frequent, studies focusing on Zambia still! ( Conway & Schipper 2011 ) significantly in the annual and winter season rainfall variation for the indicators and results! From a wide variety of data and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation where,... & Schipper 2011 ) rainfall amount.ii rainfall during the 35-year period the main rainy season the! High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii ) recorded more than the main rainy season of Qinghai-Tibet. Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.2 calculated PCI for seasonal as well as rainfall. Series were plotted in order to identify the outliers visual identification of the distance. Inverse distance of uncertainty for the area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous dissected... Variables and crop production was analysed for the spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature are. ( Conway & Schipper 2011 ) space forequatorial westerlies local communities with various employment..
Who Wrote Are You Lonesome Tonight, Middle School Yearbook Archives, Articles D